Skip to map

Independent civic-data analysis · May 2026

Where the lines may move.
Where to organize people.

The Supreme Court's Callais v. Landry ruling clears the runway for ten Southern states to redraw congressional and legislative maps before 2028. This dashboard names the seats most exposed under each state's projected redraw and surfaces where civic-engagement work has the highest leverage.

19 U.S. House seats projected to flip safe-GOP
191 state-legislature seats at risk across the South
140 majority-minority districts could be eliminated
10 Southern states modeled in this dashboard

Top of dashboard · Georgia first

Potential Georgia map redraws on the June 17 agenda

Governor Kemp called a special session for June 17, 2026 to redraw Georgia's congressional and state legislative maps for 2028 and to address the July 1 voting-system deadline. Below are the four most plausible map scenarios under serious discussion, and the Georgia election-code background that determines what the General Assembly is and is not allowed to draw.

Most likely

1. GA-2 target: Sanford Bishop's district

Crack the rural Black-majority 2nd Congressional District, one of the last in the Deep South. Bishop has held it for seventeen terms. Splitting Albany, Columbus, and Macon-Bibb across three GOP-leaning districts converts a reliable Black-voter pickup into a 10-4 Republican delegation.

Who is named
U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop (D), GA-2
Communities cracked
Albany, Columbus, Macon-Bibb, Black Belt counties
Legal exposure
Shaw / Miller racial gerrymander; state contiguity
Likely if leadership goes bigger

2. Metro Atlanta carve-up: a 10th GOP seat

Redraw GA-6, GA-7, and GA-13 to dilute Black and AAPI voters across Cobb, Gwinnett, and South Fulton. Some GOP strategists are urging caution because an aggressive metro redraw could dilute Republican margins in surrounding districts and create new vulnerability in 2028.

Districts at risk
GA-6, GA-7, GA-13
Communities cracked
South Fulton, South DeKalb, Gwinnett, Cobb
Legal exposure
Section 2 vote dilution; Fourteenth Amendment
Companion play

3. State legislative map refresh

Reopen the 2023 court-ordered Alpha Phi Alpha state House and Senate maps that this same legislature was forced to redraw under Voting Rights Act findings. A second redraw in the same decade hands plaintiffs a strong pretext argument and signals that the General Assembly believes Callais shields them from accountability.

Maps in play
GA House and Senate (post-Alpha Phi Alpha)
Communities cracked
Henry, Clayton, South DeKalb, Macon-Bibb
Legal exposure
Mid-decade redraw with no demographic basis
Floor still open

4. Minimum-effort partisan redraw

A narrower scenario where leadership pulls back to a single congressional target plus targeted state Senate seat-tightening. Lower legal exposure, lower partisan gain. Cited by GOP caucus moderates worried about overreach litigation and the optics of a World Cup-window special session under international press scrutiny.

Scope
One CD + targeted state Senate seats
Internal pressure
GOP caucus moderates urging restraint
Legal exposure
Lower, but Section 2 and state claims still live

Background · Why the election code matters

What Georgia's election code says about how districts must be drawn

Map drawing in Georgia is governed by a stack of state constitutional, statutory, and federal rules. The contiguity and equal-population rules below are the most common state-law hooks for challenging a bad-faith mid-decade redraw, and they are why Common Cause Georgia is asking members to push for clearer continuous-maps language in any future Georgia Voting Rights Act.

Georgia Constitution

Contiguity requirement

Article III, Section II, Paragraph II requires that state legislative districts be composed of contiguous territory. A district drawn so that a voter cannot travel within the district without leaving and re-entering it is presumptively unconstitutional under Georgia law. Mid-decade carve-ups that produce tortured shapes are vulnerable here.

Ga. Const. art. III, § II, ¶ II

Federal Constitution

One person, one vote

State legislative districts must be roughly equal in population under the Fourteenth Amendment. Georgia has its own controlling precedent in Larios v. Cox (N.D. Ga. 2004), which struck down a Georgia state legislative map for population deviations that systematically favored one party. Any special-session map that plays loose with population to engineer seats hits this rule.

Larios v. Cox, 300 F. Supp. 2d 1320 (N.D. Ga. 2004)

Federal statute

Voting Rights Act, Section 2

Prohibits practices that deny or abridge the right to vote on account of race. Narrowed by Louisiana v. Callais in 2025 to require a strong inference of intentional discrimination, but still live. The standard is exactly what LDF is litigating on remand in Alabama and what would govern a federal challenge to a Georgia mid-decade map.

52 U.S.C. § 10301

Georgia Constitution

Equal protection

Article I, Paragraph II of the Georgia Constitution has independent force from the federal Fourteenth Amendment and is litigated in Fulton County Superior Court. State courts are not bound by federal Purcell-doctrine timing, which makes the state-court track a faster lane when the special session ends and the map is signed.

Ga. Const. art. I, § I, ¶ II

Gap in current law

What Georgia does not require

Georgia's election code does not require maps to remain in place for a full decade absent census-driven population change. It does not require pre-enactment public comment periods. It does not require independent commission review. And it does not give voters a private right of action against a discriminatory map in state court, the way California, New York, Connecticut, and Virginia state VRAs do.

O.C.G.A. Title 28, Chapter 2 (Reapportionment) and Title 21 (Elections)

What we are asking for

Continuous-maps language in a Georgia VRA

A Georgia Voting Rights Act, modeled on SB 536 (Sen. Harold Jones II) and state VRAs already on the books elsewhere, would require maps to remain in place between censuses absent extraordinary justification, restore preclearance, add vote-dilution standards, guarantee language access, and give voters a private right of action in Georgia state court.

See SB 536, Henry McNeal Turner Voting Rights Act

Step 1 · Read the map

Ten Southern states in the line of fire

Each state is shaded by the projected loss of majority-Black and majority-Hispanic legislative districts. Click a state to see its congressional and state-legislature seat impact, plus four redistricting scenarios.

Shading by
low high

Step 2 · Compare the damage

Projected seat shifts, state by state

Congressional projections from Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter's September 2025 report. State-legislature projections from their November 2025 follow-up. Numbers are modeled scenarios assuming GOP-controlled legislatures redraw aggressively after Callais.

State U.S. House: D → R shift VRA-protected House seats at risk Majority-Black state-lege seats lost Majority-Hispanic state-lege seats lost Next election

Step 3 · Georgia deep dive

Where Common Cause Georgia is fighting now

Georgia is reportedly considering adding redistricting to a special session. Below are four plausible scenarios for the state's 14 congressional districts, and the bill that would harden state-level protections.

SB 536 · Henry McNeal Turner Voting Rights Act

Sen. Harold Jones II (D-Augusta) introduced Georgia's state-level voting rights statute in February. It restores preclearance, adds vote-dilution standards, language access, and a private right to sue.

In Committee Senate Ethics

What a state VRA can and cannot do

State VRAs reach state, local, and (where states control them) congressional maps drawn within the state. They cannot solve partisan gerrymandering of the U.S. House nationally — that requires federal action like the Freedom to Vote Act.

Step 4 · Georgia State Senate strategy

Where town halls move the most leverage

Fifty-six State Senate districts. Toggle between competitive-race signal and demographic layers to find the districts where civic pressure has the highest political return on a no-redraw vote.

Layer

Top organizing priorities

Districts ranked by combined vulnerability and majority-minority share. These are seats where a town hall likely matters most.

Step 5 · Plug in

Three ways to act this month

All events are hosted by Common Cause Georgia. Open in a new tab to register through Mobilize.

03

Show up to a county meeting

Member meetings across the metro Atlanta counties most relevant to the at-risk districts modeled above.